Myanmar's Military Retains Ties with Russia Amid Ongoing Civil Conflict
As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, Myanmar finds itself at a crucial junction. While the United States engages in discussions around military assistance with allies like Ukraine, Russia has reaffirmed its commitment to Myanmar, one of its few remaining partners, by providing military support and discussing economic collaboration.
On March 4, 2025, Myanmar’s military leader, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, paid his fourth official visit to Russia since seizing power in a 2021 coup. This visit underscored the deepening ties between the two nations, which share a mutual interest in bolstering their respective positions against Western sanctions.
The 2021 coup ended a decade-long experiment with democracy in Myanmar, igniting a wave of peaceful protests that evolved into a nationwide resistance known as the “Spring Revolution.” As this civil conflict stretches into its fourth year, estimates indicate over 6,000 fatalities and millions displaced, as reported by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a human rights organization committed to illuminating the ongoing struggle in Myanmar.
In their latest collaboration, Min Aung Hlaing has granted Russia rights to extract vital minerals in conflict-affected areas and establish an oil refinery and port in the strategic coastal city of Dawei. This partnership comes as Russia seeks to leverage Myanmar’s resources to mitigate the impacts of international sanctions following its actions in Ukraine.
Myanmar’s military has increasingly relied on Russian exports of armaments and other support throughout this protracted conflict. Both nations are navigating a unique relationship forged in mutual need, with Myanmar becoming a strategic route for Russia to transport oil to China. In a local effort to bolster this alliance, Myanmar has also agreed to send skilled workers to Russia to assist amid its pressing labor shortages.
However, the international perception of Russia has shifted significantly due to its actions in Ukraine. Consequently, this relationship may not provide the substantial diplomatic cover that Myanmar’s military leaders hope for. Interestingly, should the dynamics of U.S.-Russia relations improve under the new administration, it could potentially strengthen Myanmar’s military on the global stage, although it may create challenges for the various opposition groups within the country.
While the U.S. has openly supported the Spring Revolution and voiced solidarity with dissidents, including members of the National Unity Government (NUG), real change has yet to materialize. Critically, the lack of formal recognition of the NUG as Myanmar’s legitimate government has hindered efforts to deploy their financial assets held in the U.S., stalling vital support for the opposition’s cause. It reflects a broader trend where recent U.S. policy shifts, particularly under the Trump administration, have hindered previously vocal support for democracy in Myanmar.
Tensions are set to escalate as the effects of reduced U.S. aid could potentially allow China to carve out a more significant role in mediating the ongoing conflict. China’s interests in stabilizing Myanmar are paramount, primarily to prevent spillover effects from the civil unrest that may impact their border security. Despite its historical ties with Myanmar’s opposition, Beijing has increased its focus on promoting reconciliation and pushing for ceasefire agreements.
As Myanmar navigates this complex political landscape, the shifting dynamics among global powers like the U.S., Russia, and China will undoubtedly impact the future of its civil war. Nevertheless, it remains clear that the path to achieving democracy and enduring peace in Myanmar is fraught with challenges, underscoring the need for a refined approach that encourages meaningful dialogue among all parties involved.
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